Future of Central America and the Caribbeans

FUTURE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEANS
FROM HERE TO 2030

SUMMARY: Revision 2005

The global population of Central America ( Including Mexico) and the Caribbeans attains 186 million. It would reach about 238 million by 2030. The global GNI accounts for 880 $Billion in 2004. By 2030, we can expect 2,170 $Billion.

The future of Central America and the Carribeans relies on a new generation of people. In Central America, the citizens have a pragmatic vision of the world. In the Caribbeans, the new generation thinks global and in a positive way.

The good results of the Caribbeans represent a Black success story. There is none Black fatality. Whatever, races, ethnicity and the negative experiences of the past, any human mind can get universal results. Once again, it proves that education and creativity are the main drivers of people destiny. Look at the map of the region.

DRAWING 1

The future of both Central America and the Caribbeans is linked to the future of the US Economy. By 2030, there is no doubt that a single entity will be established from Alaska to Panama, with the same goods and labor markets, the same currency and by the end the same Economy.

Warning: Go to Standards of quality about the sources of tables and stats: Economic stats-World Bank: www.worldbank.org/data. Population stats: UN: www.un.org/esa/.

1-CENTRAL AMERICA 2-CARIBBEANS

1-CENTRAL AMERICA

11-Diagnosis

Let's us examine the region: Geography, population, economy, and political situation: This short examination does not show trauma or bad symptoms.

111-Géography

Central America includes eight countries: Mexico, Belize, guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Mexico accounts for 72% of the population and 79% of the superficies.

The region covers 2,480,000 square kilometers ( Mexico: 1,958,000). From the US border, arid plains are continued by separate mountainous chains (cordilleras) and finally a volcanic area until the canal of Panama (100 major volcanoes and some of them still alive). Narrow plains run along both coasts. The region is washed by the Caribbean sea and the Pacific ocean. It looks like a bridge between North and South America. There are various climates and vegetations (Arid plains, rain forests, highlands). The volcanic area exposes to earth quakes and frequent natural disasters. Click on : infoplease.com/atlas/central america .You will get a specific map of Central America.

112-Population

The population represents 147 million (Mexico: 102). It is composed with Mestizo: 86 million, Native Indian: 38 million, White: 16 million and black : 1 Million. Clearly, Native Indian form a more important minority than in South America. White people represent a small community but it is quite difficult to distinguish them from the Mestizo notably in Mexico. Blacks are scattered over the coasts ( Belize, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras). People worship Roman Catholicism. Spanish is the main language. Businessmen and urban professionnals speak fluent english.

The growth rate remains quite high (2.4 to 2.6) in the far South. On the contrary, Mexico has strongly reduced its growth rate ( Today 1.4 instead of 2.5 before 1970). The global population would reach about 193 million by 2030.

113-Economy

In 2004, the global GNI of the 8 countries accounted for 790 $Billion. Of course, the economy is dominated by Mexico ( 703 Billion in 2004) which is the largest economy in latin America (Outpacing Brazil: 552 ). The next drawing shows the recent evolution of the main economies ( In yearly growth rate ):

DRAWING 2

Years----------- 2000---- 2001--- 2002---- 2003----2004

Mexico------------ 7%-------0%----- 1%------1%----- 4%
Guatemala---------4%-------2%------2%------2%------3%
Honduras---------- 6%------ 2%----- 3%------3%------5%
El Salvador-------- 2%-------2%------2%------2%------2%
Nicaragua--------- 4%-------3%------1%------2%------4%
Costa Rica---------2%-------1%------3%------7%------4%
Panama------------3%-------1%------5%------2%------6%

All the economies have known a fast growth since 1990 and a slow down between 2001 and 2003. Some economies such as Mexico and Costa Rica have a high % of technology in their manufactured exports ( 20 to 40%).

By 2030, we can expect a global GNI of 1,950 $Billion ( Considering a growth rate of 3,5% over 26 years). Mexico would reach 1,720 $Billion in 2030. Click on: www.centramerica.com .

114-Politics

All the countries are free (Guatemala and Nicaragua are said partly free). This situation shows a major improvement: Between 1970 and 1990, civil wars raged in the region (Guatemala, El salvador, Nicaragua) and Mexico was ruled by an authoritarian power since 1910! By 1990 with the fall of the Soviet Union, democracy began to expand in the region.

However, just like in South America, the societies are facing with violence and corruption connected to drugs trafficking. In Mexico City, 80% of crimes go unreported. However, the different governments have taken measures in order to deal with this problem. Click on: www.inforpressca.com/CAR/

115-Conclusion

This short examination does not show trauma or bad symptoms. Considering a past history made up of fierce civil wars, constant guerrillas and revolutions, what are the cause of this virtuous evolution?

12-Pragmatism

The region has greatly changed in the last decade and for the better. A new generation has surged with a pragmatic vision of the world. Both former leftists and rightists have understood that it was fruitless to go on with out dated ideologies and policies and that time was coming for practical compromises.

121-A pragmatic vision ended the civil wars

This pragmatism has ended fierce civil wars without losers or winners: You have to remind the dreadful situation between 1970 and 1990. Exported from Cuba, the revolution began in El Salvador and expanded in Nicaragua. In 1979, the Sandinista took over the power and set up a marxist State in Nicaragua. They harbored soviet advisors, 7500 cuban officers and a lot of NGO’s such as the Basque ETA, the German Baader gang, the Italian red brigades and so on. Moreover Nicaragua built up a 120,000 army and threatened El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Colombia.

However, the Sandinista encountered a strong resistance composed with rural youth, peasants, urban professionals and indian Miskitos eager to defend their small plots of land, their churches, their indigenous culture and freedom. A civil war raged with 100,000 casualties in Nicaragua and 80,000 in El Salvador.

By the end of 1990, with the end of the Soviet Block, the Sandinista entered in a negotiations both in Nicaragua and El Salvador. In 1992, Peace agreements were signed which recognized the Sandinista as a political party and opened the road to democracy and free elections. As a result, the Sandinista lose the power but remain an important political party. By the same token, a peace agreement was signed in Guatemala (1996) and ended a 36 years guerilla war opposing the Indians to the White and mestizos. Moreover, all the new governments engaged themselves to set up reforms and to take care of the minorities.

It is useful to recall this old story because it shows the surge of pragmatism in the region. Unlike Castro, the Sandinista adopted a pragmatic view. With the end of the Soviet block, they realized they were going nowhere. On the other hand, the right wing made also compromises and by the end there were no winners or losers.

122-A pragmatic vision implemented sound economic policies.

In the nineties until today, the new governments have established sound economic policies with free market reforms of sea port, air port, telecom, energy and so on. 90% of the trade is under free trade agreement. Mexico belongs to the current North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the US, Mexico, and Canada. A new agreement, the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) negotiated between the United States and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, is expected to extend the benefits of free trade to the entire region ( It is also a milestone toward the Free Trade Area of the Americas, FTAA agreement, which would include all the countries of the Western Hemisphere, except Cuba).

Free trade agreements eliminate tariffs on exports and imports of goods, and are also designed to create opportunities for investors, generate employment, promote investment, and encourage economic development and poverty reduction. Clearly CAFTA will enhance Central American countries' ability to use trade to serve the needs of the majority in the region.

Once again, it is a pragmatic vision: For example, Mexican trade with the USA accounts for 88% of exports and 62% of imports. The reality shows that the entire regional economy is more and more a segment of the US economy.

123-A pragmatic approach of street violence and corruption

The governments are taking strong measures to combat street violence, corruption, and drugs trafficking: In Mexico, Vicente Fox selected as attorney general, a serving general. In Guatemala, the President has called out army troops to assist the Police in patrolling urban areas. This growing role of the military has contributed to restore security in rural areas. In order to clean up Mexico city, the mayor announced he was hiring former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani as a security consultant. As a result, Mexico's drug cartels were decapitated.

Since the public police is highly corrupted, the safe segments of civil society are more and more taking the control of law and order (Neighborhood patrols in Honduras, Guatemala or Salvador). Of course, this situation can result in abuses. However, it appears to be the only pragmatic way to prevent the spreading of crime and violence. In these specific countries, you have only two choices: The best guess is to erect the rule of law and a safe network of judges and police. Since, you have no money to provide with this network, the only way is to let honest people organizing by themselves their private protection. A Republic which should be only good for the criminals has no future in this region (Click on South America).

13-Country review

This review only includes the countries we have visited. It provides with some specific informations notably in business matters. Our short tourist advices are dedicated to businessmen, traveling in the main capitals and who have not too much time.

131-Mexico

Introduction: Mexico covers 1,958,000 square kilometers with arid plains in the North, mountains in the center and forests in the South. About old civilizations, click on:www.ancientmexico.com

Population: 102 million. Mestizo: 60%, Amerindian: 30%, white: 10%. Capital: Mexico city (19 million). Many people are living in the US.

Politics: Free country. Vicente Fox is the first chief executive elected in free and fair elections since 1910! Despite this fact, NGO's dislike him because he is conservative.

Economy: The GNI attains 703 $billion. It is the largest in Latin America ( Both South and Central America) and the tenth economic power in the world ( Before Russia). The GNI per capita reaches $6,770 ( Rank: 69 on 208 ). Taking in account the purchasing power parity, it reaches $9,590 ( Rank: 80 ).

Mexico has a free market economy dominated by the private sector. Vicente Fox has expanded competition in seaports, railroads, telecommunications, electricity generation, natural gas distribution, and airports. Trade with the US and Canada has tripled since the implementation of NAFTA in 1994. The migrants remittances help to support the macro economic balance.

The economy is well diversified (Wood products, food and beverages, tobacco, chemicals, iron and steel, petroleum, mining, textiles, clothing, motor vehicles, consumer durables, tourism).The "maquiladoras" (export-processing zones) have played a positive role. Go to this business directory. Click on: www.mexonline.com .

Our small investor rating is *** : Mexico is a fast growing economy with a friendly biz government and large internal and external Markets. I make up some mental reservations about the revolutionary tradition ( "commandante Marcos" and so on) and consequently about the motivations of unskilled workers.

Business tourism: Don't expect to see Mexicans with moustaches, guitars and sombreros! Forget these outdated images. Most modern areas look like Texas and New Mexico: Same dressing, same look, same Tex food. Due to migrants in the US, Mexico is more and more integrated to North America. However, be very careful in Mexico city and only stay in first class hostels.

132-Guatemala

Introduction: The country covers 112,000 square kilometers with many mountains and volcanoes. During the second half of the 20th century, it experienced a variety of military and civilian governments

Population: 12.3 million: Mestizo 55%, Indians 43%, white people: 2%. Capital: Guatemala city.

Politics: Free country. However it is a violent country: The Spanish minority tends to behave like the conquistadors!

Economy: In 2004 the GNI attains 26.9 $billion and the the GNI per capita $2,130 ( Rank: 117 on 208 ). Taking in account the purchasing power parity, the GNI per capita reaches 4,140 ( Rank: 131 ). However, the distribution of income remains highly unequal, with 75% of the population below the poverty line. The agricultural sector accounts for about one fourth of GDP, two thirds of exports, and half of the labor force. Coffee, sugar, and bananas are the main products.

Our small investor rating is:*+. Guatemala needs a pioneer spirit!

Business tourism: From Guatemala city you can visit the old spanish colonial city of Antigua ( Half a day trip by car) and the lago de Atitlan ( A day trip by car). The old maya ruins of Tikal are a must ( One day trip by private plane). You can climb with ladders on the top of the stone pyramids. From this point of view, you can contemplate the fall of the sun on the surrounding jungle: It’s a magic experience. Click on: www.enjoyguatemala.com and on Lake Atitlan Guatemala.

133-Panama

Introduction: Panama is a small country covering 76,000 square kilometers. The Panama Canal was built by the US between 1904 and 1914. Click on: www.panamainfo.com

Population: 3 million. Mestizo: 70%, West Indian: 14%, white: 10%, Native indians: 6%. Capital: Panama city.

Economy: The GNI accounts for 13,5 billion in 2004. (GNI per capita: $4,450. Rank: 81 on 208). Taking in account the purchasing power parity, the GNI attains 6,870 ( Rank: 100 ). Panama's dollarised economy relies primarily on a developed services sector: The Panama Canal, banking, the Colon Free Zone, insurance, container ports, flagship registry, and tourism.

Our small investor rating:**- : Very friendly people, openness to your problems, high qualified professionals.

Business tourism: Panama city is the only town in latin America built on the US model with high towers shielding banks and investment services. By night, Panama city is glittering with many bright and fashionable places. Of course, visit the canal zone in Panama city. Click on: www.panamatours.com

1-CENTRAL AMERICA 2-CARIBBEANS

2-THE CARIBBEANS

21-Diagnosis

Except Cuba and Haiti, our factual diagnosis does not show any trauma and provides with good future prospects.

211-Geography

The Caribbeans count about 26 countries and dependencies: Independent countries: Antigua and barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, Dominican republic, Cuba, Grenada, Jamaica, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Haiti. British dependencies: Anguilla, British virgin islands, Cayman islands, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos islands. US dependencies: Puerto rico, US virgin islands. Dutch dependencies: Aruba, Netherlands antilles (Curacao). French overseas departments: Martinique, Guadeloupe, St Barth and St Martin (Divided into French and Dutch).

The Caribbeans only cover 232,000 square kilometers. Cuba (111,000), the Dominican Republic and Haiti (77,000) are the two main islands. The distance between Jamaica and Barbados is the same as the distance between London and Moscow! Moreover, each country or dependency can include several islands. For example, the Bahamas count 700 islands. Most of these islands are minuscule and some of them have a volcanic activity. Hurricanes represent a constant threat. Most of the region is tropical and the genuine rainforests are disappearing due to the population pressure.

212-Population

The global population represents about 39 million. Only three countries surpass 5 million: Cuba (11), the Dominican Republic (9) and Haiti (8). Despite the different political statutes, the population is mostly black, mulatto and creole descent of slaves. People are christians (Roman Catholics, Anglicans and various evangelicals). According to the island, english, french and spanish are the main languages in use.

The population growth rate is moderate (between 0.3 and 1.5). By 2030, the population should reach about 45 million. Nevertheless, the population density is high in some islands with harmful consequences on deforestation and fresh water availability. A large diaspora is living both in the US, UK and France.

213-Economy

In 2004, the global GNI of the Caribbeans accounted for 91 $Billions ( Puerto Rico: 42). In fact the figure would be higher because we have no stats regarding Cuba. Despite the very bad performances of both Cuba and Haiti which remain undeveloped ( Cuba :$520 per capita and Haiti: $380), the other countries and dependencies are quite developed and some of them rank among the high world incomes (Such as the Bahamas: $15,000 and the French Antilles : About $18,000 per capita). Without Haiti and Cuba, the average GNI per capita amounts $5,500.

It is interesting to note the evolution of the most important independent countries over the period (No available figures about Cuba) in yearly growth rate.

DRAWING 3

Years-------------- 2000---2001---2002---2003---2004

Dominican Republic----8%------4%-----4%-----0%-----2%
Jamaica--------- -----1%------2%-----1%-----2%-----2%
Trinidad---------- ----6%------0%-----7%-----13%----6%
Haiti--------- --------1%------1%-----1%-----0%----4%

Except Trinidad (thanks to oil refining) the growth slowed down from 2001 to 2002 in connection with the US.

By 2030, the global GNI would attain about 220 $Billion ( Despite the situation in Cuba and Haiti). It means that some countries such as the Bahamas, Barbados and Trinidad would get the European standards of living. Due to its present population growth rate (1.5), the Dominican Republic would only attain about $4,100 per capita . Globally the region can foreseen acceptable and sometimes very good performances.

214-Politics

Except Cuba and Haiti, all the countries whatever their political statutes are free democracies.

Compared to street violence raging in Central America, the Caribbeans represent a safe harbor with a low rate of offence and delinquency ( Except Haiti ). Law and order are prominent in these countries. Bribery and drug trafficking seem less frequent than in Central America ( Except Cuba, Haiti and on a smaller scale the Dominican Republic)

215-Conclusion

Except Cuba and Haiti, this short factual diagnosis does not show any trauma and provides with good future prospects. The results are quite astonishing because in the 1960 there was a growing anxiety about the future of the region.

22-Early anxiety

In the 1960, many people were anxious about the future of the region. The causes for concern were backed up by three facts: A dreadful history, the complexity of race relations, the bitter prospects of a patchwork of minuscule island States.

221-A dreadful history

For tourists and businessmen, the Caribbeans mean sunny beaches, luxurious resorts, cruises, gambling, and fiscal paradises. In fact, few people are aware about the dreadful history of the region.

Until the 10th, the islands were inhabited by peaceful indians tribes ( The Arawaks). At the beginning of the 11th and until the arrival of the Spanish in 1492, the Caribs, a warlike tribe coming from the Orinoco (Today Venezuela) invaded the region. When they defeated the Arawaks it was their habits to marry the women and eat the men. They were cannibals (And this word came from "Caniba", the name the Arawaks gave to the Caribs). Click on: www.ultimatebvi.com/history.html . According to the politically correct mood, some scholars say that this cannibalism was ritualistic or religious ( Some recent scholars pretend that the Caribs never existed and were just an invention of the Spaniards. Click on www.kacike.org/cac-ike/cannibals.html ). In fact, the cannibalism was not ritualistic anymore: The caribs fattened up young boys for eating. They really bred people for food and were used to warehouse smoked flesh of human. Report to serious History sites in clicking on:www.bartleby.com/67 and www.historyworld.net

When Columbus and the Spaniard landed in the Caribbeans, they found some remnant Arawak tribes and faced with a strong resistance from the Caribs. As a result, the Queen Isabel ordered the Spaniards to take care of the peaceful indians and to only enslave the cannibals. In fact, through wars and health diseases (Small pox and tuberculosis) the indian, both Caribs and Arawaks, disappeared ( Later some Caribs were deported by the British in Belize and Honduras). As a result, there are no more indians in the Caribbeans ( Except in Dominica where 3,000 caribs are still living in a reserve).

Because of the fast disappearing of indians, the slave trade with Africa began and provided with labor the large sugarcane plantations implemented in the islands (Notably Cuba). It is sometimes said that the slavery conditions were paternalist. It’s not true. They were ferocious. Runaways (“Maroons”) were tortured to death or burned at stake. Dozen of revolts were savagely repressed. Whatever the masters (Spaniards and then British, French, or Dutch) the slavery conditions were uncivilized.

The French revolution abolished slavery but it was soon re-established by Napoleon. Finally, slavery was really abolished in the Caribbean by 1870. However, despite the change in legal statute, the majority of black people remained attached to their white owners plantations with poor salaries, bad housing and no education. We may say that this situation lasted until the middle of the 20th century in some regions. As you could imagine, such a situation did not predispose to peaceful race relations.

222-Complexity of race relations.

Due to this past history, races relation are quite complicated. Black people work as laborers, fishermen, or small plot farmers. Mulatto correspond to the middle class and urban professionals. Finally, the upper class remains the privilege of a small minority of white planters.

Since the slave age, these white planters have not too much changed their habits and behaviors. For example, they have kept as domestic servants the descent of their slaves. They have no relation with other people and stay apart like the old nobility. Of course, some families have fallen in poverty. These poor white people use to live in some specific islands such as St Barth ( The world famous resort). Since they only marry into their family circles, you can observe a lot of genetic diseases.

In short, whatever the social conditions, education, or wealth, white planters, mulatto and black never mix. For example, in Cuba before Castro, the President Batista (A mulatto) was denied membership in one of Havana's most exclusive clubs. Today, it would be absolutely impolite to invite together rich mulatto and rich planters at home for a dinner ( In a restaurant at lunch you can mix but not at home for dinner!). These anecdotes show how complex are the race relations in the Caribbeans.

In fact, the expected troubles did not happen. People agree to live friendly side by side but not together. Does this specific feature represent an outdated behavior? Does it represent the future of class and race relations in a globalized world? I let the answer to the reader.

Surprisingly, despite the neighboring of Cuba, the Marxism did not expand in the Caribbeans ( Except a short occurrence in Grenada). Firstly, most of the black working class is composed with small owners ( Small log cabins, plots of land, fishing boats, retailer shops and so on). The fact to possess something distinguishes these small owners from their slave ancestors deprived of any properties. As a result, they are not inclined toward any collectivism. Secondly, the middle business class (mulatto) began to thrive in the 70 in connection with the tourism boom. They are strongly opposed to any marxist society. Thirdly, Fidel, Raul Castro and Guevara give the image of a Spaniard descent. Clearly, it is not a good image for marketing the marxism in the Caribbeans!

223-A patchwork of minuscule island States

In the 1960, at dawn of the independence wave, many doubts arose about the viability of a patchwork of minuscule island States. Concerns were related to the lack of natural resources and raw materials except sugar. Moreover, the population growth rate was higher than today and experts forecasted overcrowded islands with mass poverty, deforestation and a lot of small tyrannies. In fact, this scenario only happened in Haiti and Cuba (The Dominican Republic has now joined the free countries club).

Today, fifty years later, and except Cuba and Haiti, we may observe that the independent countries have gotten the same good results as the dependencies. For example, the Bahamas ($15,000 per capita), Antigua, Barbados and Trinidad (7,000-$10,000 per capita) obtain as good results as Puerto Rico ( An US dependency ). Of course, the French departments show better results because they benefit of subsidies from France.

However, Dominica, Jamaica, St Vincent and the Dominican Republic remain poor countries but their economic growth is on a rising trend.

23-A global and positive thinking

These results could seem astonishing. You cannot explain them with geography, history, potentialities and so on. In taking only in account these topics, people in the 60 expected a negative future. Once again, it means that we have to focus on the present people mind.

Considering the situation described above, you could expect to find a constant resentment, or a long rumination about the negative experiences of the past. In fact such feelings only exist in the mind of some European faculties. In the recent years, and just like in Central America, a new generation has surged with a high literacy rate ( 97% in most islands ). Moreover, many students learned economy in the US and several business schools were implemented in the Caribbeans during this period. As a result, these new Caribbeans think global and what is more, they think positive.

These new people have completely changed their mental image of the world. Nobody in the Caribbeans take interest about outdated stories regarding the black identity, the race relations, the legacy of slavery and so on. Through, their diaspora and their education, the young Caribbeans have the feeling to belong to a much larger community than their native island. They are inclined to think global. What it means to think global? It means that people do not dream about a greater Jamaica or a greater Bahamas playing a major role on the world scene! Indeed, they nurture a business world vision instead of a nationalistic or ethnic vision. Paradoxically, in these small scattered islands, you find a more accurate global vision than in the old Europe.

People use to perceive their native island as a single shop in the global market. Of course these shops have to specialized in order to increase their positioning. Many bad economists advised the Caribbeans to specialize in their raw materials such as sugar cane, fruits, bananas, fish products and cheap labor. In fact, the new generation has specialized in services: Tourism, real estate for rich retired people, safe harbor for money, free duty zone for investors targeting the US market. In short, they proved to be creative and innovative, sending at bay all the out dated economic theories (Click on ecodev). What is more, in order to achieve these goals, they framed their own minds (openness to the world and helpfulness). I found in this region more qualified, trained and reliable urban professionals than in many European areas. Of course, this trend explains the results and notably the success of banking services.

Today, the Caribbeans are a major tourist destination in the world. Many rich people get retired in these islands ( Some wealthy people buy private islands). A large number of the fiscal paradises are located in the Caribbeans and attract thousand $Billion ( These banking services were first implemented in the British dependencies by the London City and they soon expanded over the entire region ). Moreover, many related activities have been well developed such as gambling, casinos, luxurious boat ship yards, and so on.

The Caribbeans are more and more integrated in the world economy. Visiting Saint Marten ( a Dutch colony) or the Bahamas ( an independent State-former British dependency), you find everywhere the same urban landscape, the same language among the traders, the same currency ( Dollar), same dressings, same business habits. More and more, the Caribbeans look like some areas in Florida. Despite its former Spanish and French influences, the Dominican Republic is following the same path ( We may expect the same evolution in Cuba after Castro). It means that it is fruitless to talk about the future of each island or of the Caribbeans as a singular entity. Just like Central America, the future of the Caribbeans is closely linked to the the future of the US economy.

There is another global lesson: As we have seen above, in subtracting Cuba and Haiti, the average GNI per capita ranks about $5,500. It represents ten to twenty fold the average GNI of most African countries ( Click on Africa). It means that the Caribbeans represent a black success story. There is none black fatality. Whatever races, ethnicity and the negative experience of the past, any human mind can get universal results. Once again, it proves that education and creativity are the main drivers of people destiny.

As you can see our Caribbean survey provides with good food for thought. Most of these facts are usually hidden by wrong scholars who only focus on Cuba and Haiti for supporting their outdated theories. However be sure that they get vacation in Saint Barth rather than in Haiti and they save their money in the Caymans rather than in Cuba! I mean business: I can name a famous french intellectual always complaining about poverty and who chairs a financial fund in the Cayman islands!

24-Country review

241-Cuba

Cuba is the main island in the Caribbean with 111,000 square kilometers and 11 million inhabitants. Since 1959, it is a communist one-party State: No free elections; no freedom (Freedom of movement and the right to choose one's residence, education, and job are restricted. Attempting to leave the island without permission is an offense); no free medias. People who protest are labeled "counterrevolutionary criminals" and subject to systematic repression, including arrest, beating while in custody, confiscation, and intimidation. Click on: www.cubafreepress.org

Cuba's Communist revolution, with Soviet support, was exported throughout Latin America and Africa during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Moreover, Castro attempted to cause a nuclear war between the soviets and the US with the missile crisis. Such a war would have resulted in hundred million of dead civilians. Clearly, Batista looks like an angel compared to Castro!

Unfortunately, many intellectuals notably in Europe ( And not only the former communists) indulge for Castro. Of course they recognize that Cuba is not a free country but they argue that Castro improved the situation compared to the “dreadful dictatorship” of Batista. They posit that the literacy rate is high, that health is free and that poor people are not any more suffering of hunger.

In fact, we must recall that before Castro, Cuba was one of the most advanced countries in Latin America. Havana was a glittering city. In the Americas, Cuba ranked second in per capita ownership of cars, phones and TV sets, third in life expectancy, fourth for the literacy rate (76%), fifth in per capita income. Cuba ranked 11th in the world in the number of doctors per capita. A large middle class was going toward prosperity and social mobility.

What is to day the real situation? Instead to bore you with stats that anyway do not exist, let me tell you some impressions: In visiting the country, you are constantly inclined to laugh because the propaganda is absolutely schizophrenic. In short, you may visit Cuba like a jurassic park of the former communist world. On the other hand, you should have compassion for the ordinary Cubans who are enduring a dreadful situation.

Thank to the Communism, Cuba is a lot of ruins. Firstly, considering education, the official literacy rate is high but it is to day very high too in most of the Caribbeans. The real matter is the content of education. In my opinion, the pupils and students are only good in marxist theory. The real professionals do not exist and the quality of services is lower than in Africa. The intellectuals appointed by the regime are comically stupid. The employees in the State hotels are good for nothing. Secondly, regarding health, I met privately some dentists and doctors: They were unemployed because not members of the communist party. Thirdly, regarding hunger, it is true that the regime distributes free meals: You can see big mamma going with their bowl to the kitchen soups organized in the towns. It just means that Cuba is today an undeveloped country with African substandards of living.

Clearly, except the Castro populace ( Intellectuals, students, police, military, all members of the communist party) most of the population look in despair. Prostitution is for many women the only way to get some money. You can see ordinary people waiting during hours some out dated public transportations ( All is outdated in Cuba. It is quite a jump one hundred years in the past). Moreover, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the end of the Soviet subsidies, the situation has worsened ( In 2002, the government closed 71 of Cuba's 156 sugar mills ). As a result, some experts think that the regime could be overthrow by a social revolution.

I do not share this optimistic point of view: Firstly, most of the educated people have fled the island ( Today many poor Cubans still attempt to depart the island using homemade rafts). Secondly, a great part of the population is composed with indigents and idle people: They are happy with the free meals distributed by the regime. Thirdly, the regime has the support of all the civil servants: A large network of military, police and employees. Fourth, the European business and tourism help the regime to survive: Tourism generates a lot of little traffics that only benefit to the supporters of the regime. For example, in the National (The greater State hotel in Havana) many policemen come on the morning to get a free breakfast with the complicity of the employees who take the food left by the tourists and bring it back to their home! (President Bush is right in taking the decision to limit US tourism). Consequently, the regime can benefit of a larger support than it is expected in Miami.

In short, Cuba is the perfect example of the Republic of indigents. The country is ruined but as the rich have been led to poverty, the indigents think that they have gained social justice. Of course, the indigents remain as poor as before but they get free meals distributed by the regime. The motto could be: Poverty for everybody is better than growth and progress through social inequalities. I think that this motto has a great future! For example Lula da Silva in Brazil or Chavez in Venezuela obviously share this vision. I expect also that it is the real program and unique agenda of the anti globalization movement. It means that Castro remains dangerous. Unfortunately, he can expect to die in his own bed.

Of course , our small investor rating is one of the worst:****

242-Dominican republic

Introduction: Explored by Columbus on his first voyage in 1492, the island of Hispaniola is divided into two countries: Haiti and the Dominican Republic. It has been under Spanish and French influences before independence.

Population: 8.7 million. Mulatto: 73%. White: 16%, Black: 11%. Capital: Santo Domingo. Most of urban people speak fluently both english, french, and spanish.

Politics: Free country

Economy: The GNI accounts for 18.4 $billion in 2004 ( GNI per capita: $2,070. Rank: 108 on 208). Taking in account the purchaser power parity the GNI per capita reaches 6,210 ( Rank: 100 on 208). In the past, the country was primarily an exporter of sugar, coffee, and tobacco. Today, the service sector has overtaken agriculture as the economy's largest employer, due to growth in tourism and free trade zones. Tourism, sugar processing, ferro nickel, gold mining, textiles, cement, tobacco form the main economic sectors. Tourism is increasing and the free trade zone is a major provider of employment and good salaries.

Our small investor rating is: **+

Business tourism: The capital contains many old spanish buildings. In a day trip by car you can cross the island in visiting the tobacco small plantations. People are very kind and the real estate is less expensive than in the Bahamas. Click on: www.juanperdomo.com.

243-The Bahamas

Introduction: The archipelago covers 14,000 square kilometers and includes 700 islands.

Population: 0.3 million. Black: 85%, White: 12%, Asian: 3%. Capital : Nassau.

Politics: Free country.

Economy: The GNI accounts for 4.7 billion dollars (GNI per capita: About $15,200. Rank: 43 on 208). Taking in account the purchaser power parity, the GNI per capita attains $16,140 ( Rank: 55 ). The Bahamas have thrived through tourism and international banking management. Tourism accounts for more than 60% of GDP and employs half of the archipelago's labor force. Financial services constitute the second most important sector of the Bahamian economy. In addition to tourism and banking, the government supports the development of the e-commerce. The growth prospects will depend on growth in the US ( 80% of the visitors). More information: Click on: www.bahamas.com and www.bahamasnet.com

Our small investor rating is: **-

Business tourism: From Nassau, you can easily visit Paradise island and its gambling casinos. Many luxurious housing around Nassau: Click on: www.hgchristie.com . On the fisherman port you can see crabs, lobsters, shells and many fishes. Unfortunately, do not expect to enjoy in restaurants: Most of them are addicted to the world famous British cooking!

244-Netherlands Antilles

The Netherlands Antilles (Population: 0.2 million) include Aruba, Curacao and Saint Martin shared with France ( Its southern portion is named Saint Marten and is part of the Netherlands Antilles; its northern portion is called Saint-Martin and is part of the French Guadeloupe). The islands are a dependency of the Queen of Netherlands. In fact, the country is free with large political decentralization. Its prosperity relies on the construction of oil refineries to service the Venezuelan oil fields. Tourism and offshore finance are well developed. Almost all consumer and capital goods are imported, the US and Mexico being the major suppliers. The islands enjoy a high per capita income and a well-developed infrastructure. Click on: www.ten-ham.com

Tourism is well developed in Saint Marten but the French area ( Saint Martin) offers better opportunities with its old creole villages and its fine cooking. From Saint Martin you can easily join Saint Barth by boat or plane.

Our small investor rating is **-.

245-French Antilles

Guadeloupe and Martinique are French overseas departments. Guadeloupe is by itself an archipelago including Saint Barth ( The world famous resort of the jet set). The population amounts 0.9 million with two regional capitals: Fort de France and Pointe à Pitre. The economy depends on tourism, light industry, services and agriculture. Tourism is a key industry, with most tourists from the US. A large number of cruise ships visit the islands. It also depends on France for large subsidies and imports. The islands enjoy a high per capita income and a well-developed infrastructure.

Our small investor rating is **-

The French Antilles are a very convenient place for aged people: French Gendarmerie everywhere, first class hospitals, very fine restaurants. Younger people can enjoy Saint Barth: Hotels and restaurants are often managed by teams coming from Saint Tropez. However, it is quite expensive.

1-CENTRAL AMERICA 2-CARIBBEANS

Best links-Click below

www.cia.gov : The "worldfactbook

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