1-BENEFITS
2-CONCEPTS
3-TOOLS
4-PROCESS
The
USA and North America
Central America and Caribbeans
Australia
and Oceania
China
and North East Asia
South
East Asia
India
and South Asia
Middle
East and North Africa
Sub
Saharan Africa
South
America
Europe
Global
trends
FUTURES STUDIES: METHODOLOGY
What is in it for you?
First benefit: Our futures studies empower businessmen, advanced students and policymakers to anticipate for a fast changing world. They provide you with an unique scenario regarding your own region and the entire world in 2030.
Since other surveys (Such as the CIA Global trends 2020 ) describe several scenario, our unique perspective is a world exclusivity.
Second benefit: You can send your questions and contributions. We pay personal attention and answer as soon as possible. The most interesting contributions will be published on the site with their author' name. We grant permission to every publisher to reproduce his contribution everywhere.
Third benefit: You get all these surveys for free. We just ask you to be an active supporter: Refer this site to other people. Forward copy to friends.
This on line program integrates Ten regional studies and a final survey : Global trends 2030. It requires about 15 hours of reading. The program also includes many external links. Of course, surveys and links are constantly updated.
1-BENEFITS 2-CONCEPTS 3-TOOLS 4-PROCESS
Since the origin of time people use different methods to describe the future : Magic, dream analysis, astrology, or some large theories implying social classes, religions and so on. Since many phenomena seem cyclical, people have also used cyclical analysis ( The best example is the "business cycle" ). All these methods were often deprived of any scientific grounds and led to wrong predictions.
There is another cause of the futurism's past failure: Too much people do not intend to describe what the future would be according to an objective analysis but what it should be according to preference. For example, the Millennium project is based on preferred futures ( 15 challenges). You may object that our entrepreneurship program uses visioning and assumes that the future you desire is the future which will become real. In fact, visioning can hardly be extended to global phenomena such as the future of society.
Today, many agencies such as the CIA or the OCDE mainly use the Delphi method (The name "Delphi" comes from the Oracle of Delphi ). It is a technique based on the quest for a consensus of experts coming from different countries. Through brainstorming and conferences, experts are expected to converge toward alternatives scenario. Nevertheless, in our opinion, subjectivity is reinforced by the the different origins of participants and finally preferred futures and down consensus are chosen rather than the objective ones.
In short, we have to favor an objective point of view based on a rigorous methodology. Since futurology is still in the infancy, our first task is to clearly define the concepts we shall use.
21-Paradigms
Thanks to science, we usually predict the future with a great certainty regarding most of natural phenomenon. The reason relies on the physical laws because they do not change. They form the receptacle in which events are changing and then almost predictable. Unfortunately, physical laws do not apply to human societies. However, we can deduce of them that the first step for any prediction is to define a ground which is not changing or which is changing at a low speed. Such a ground is called a paradigm.
What is the paradigm of changing events in a society? At first glance it is culture. Culture is a set of assumption, concepts, beliefs, habits, languages that constitute the way of living of any population. Since there are thousand different cultures on the earth, we have to seek their common features to establish a classification. According to the FWA history module, there are three types of cultures: The Primitive society, the Authoritarian society and the Liberal society (or free, or open society). For example, the Middle East and North Africa belong to the authoritarian type, based on Islam. Clearly, according to our definitions, Islam is a paradigm. Most other societies are emerging from primitive or authoritarian models and are entering in the liberal society. Today, the word "Globalization" designates this process. Globalization is also a paradigm.
As long as an human group belongs to a paradigm, we can forecast its possible futures compared to the impossible's. For example, a primitive society, with no creativity and only a magic background, has few possible futures mainly determined by physical and biological laws: Let's us suppose a Papuan tribe isolated on its island. You can easily predict its future in taking in account the availability of fresh water and the resources such as fish and games compared to the natural growth of the population. Of course, if the tribe is not isolated and enters in relation with other peoples (And it's the general rule) the future will be hardly predictable because of wars, conflicts, and so on. By the same token, the future of an Authoritarian society based on predatory conducts cannot integrate a scenario based on the well being of its population. When we know the present paradigm, we can expect several possible futures.
However, we may assist to a shift in paradigm when a new paradigm replaces the older on an entire continent. Shifts in paradigms are long range events that could influence the future of entire generations because they change the scope of the possible futures. For example, the replacement of Roman culture by the Christianity was a shift in paradigm in the Roman empire. In the 18th, the enlightenment was a major shift in paradigm in the European world. In the 80, another shift was the extend of the liberal society (Globalization) to the entire world thanks to the fall of Communism (A by product of the Authoritarian society). Today the European surrender to the cultural relativist mood represents also a major shift. Clearly, one specificity of our epoch is the rapid shifts in paradigms: The primitive society lasted for 100000 years. The authoritarian society began 8000 years ago and is still lasting today. The liberal society only began with the enlightenment ( About 200 years ago).
Paradigms map the world like tectonic plates and when they enter in contact some turmoils occur just like in geological matter. For example, the former East West divide or the South North divide resulted of confrontation of paradigms. Today the Liberal society versus Islam represents a new one.
22-Content-Components-Events-Trends
Into the paradigm there is a content constantly evolving and changing. Regarding a society, this content is composed with different components such as the people, the relations with environment, the economy, the technology, the politics and so on. Obviously, we could find thousand of different components and we have only selected four components because they occupy a major place in the society and can be measured through data: The population, the economy, the technical progress and the politics.
These components are changing and each change is an event. For example, the death of thousands people due to an earthquake is an event affecting the component population. The yearly change in population is a repetitive event. Indeed, among the events, we have chosen those that are constantly repetitive according to different frequencies. The evolution of these repetitive events represents a trend. Consequently, trends show how the components are changing. Among the different trends, we only focus on some of them: The evolution of population in quantity and quality, the economic trend, the technical progress ( For example, number of patents ) and the evolution of democracy, human rights and peace in the world ( Number of conflicts and so on).
23-Drivers.
The word "Driver" designates the cause that produces an event and then results in a specific trend into a component. According to FWA, a driver is always a mental event because only the human spirit can induce a change in a societal event. For example, if many individuals nurture an entrepreneurial spirit and an optimistic mood, the yearly growth rate of the economy will increase. If many individuals are eager to provide their children with a good education, they will limit the number of children and as a result the population growth rate will decrease.
According to our opinion, the main driver in the world history is the Freedom of consciousness and creativity that produce the technical progress and an absolute change in paradigms and society. We clearly refuse to consider that races, religions and social classes are drivers. They are just like the layers of a cliff. Of course, other drivers exist. In a primitive society, the individual mind is filled up by magic. Magic is a driver. In authoritarian society based on predatory conducts, aggression is the main driver.
We consider two main drivers in our regional studies:
-Firstly, the Freedom of consciousness. We call it the global driver because it is acting into the paradigm of globalization. Bear in mind that globalization does not only designate economic and financial topics but also the golden path: Freedom of consciousness, creativity, technical progress, development. Being the initial cause of the process, Freedom of consciousness is the driver.
-Secondly, we recognize the emergence of a new driver: The radical islamism which plays an opposite role: Sure, radical islamism is synonymous with aggression, obscurantism and favors high illiteracy among women, distrust in science, absolute lack of freedom of consciousness and finally tends to global backwardness.
Of course, there is an obvious link between paradigms and drivers. In a free society, the main driver is freedom of consciousness ( And aggression or magic in other societies). However, many drivers can operate into the same paradigm. For example, in Africa the main driver is magic but the technical progress through health care and drugs explains the high growth rate of the population that should be impossible with only magic. In some regions, such as Europe, the two drivers are entering in confrontation. It means that the confrontation of drivers whether increases the stability of the paradigm, whether induces a shift.
In short, do not confuse paradigms and drivers: The islamic society is a paradigm. The radical islamism is a driver. Globalization is a paradigm, freedom of consciousness ( The global factor) is a driver.
24-Combination of concepts can predict the future.
In combining these different concepts, we can predict one future: Not five or three possible futures but only the right one. Consider the next drawing:
DRAWING 1
The golden circle represent the present paradigm and an event A. Knowing the paradigm, you can predict the possibles futures of A in 2030. A1, A2, A3, A4 are the possible futures. On the contrary, A5, A6 and A7 represent the no possible futures because they stand outside the paradigm. For example, considering an authoritarian paradigm, you may expect that the present income per capita ( A=$500 ) will stabilize ( A1=$500 ) regress ( A3=$300 ) or slightly increase (A2=$600 and A4=$700 ) in the future. However it will never attain $5,000 or $10,000 ( A5, A6, A7).
Now, when you take in account the driver (For example Radical Islam), you may extrapolate a more accurate trend and you can predict the exact future income : A3 in the red circle. If we conduct a correct trend analysis, we may reasonably assume that this future is unique ( With some sensibility tests: For example + or -10% ).
However, this scheme implies an accurate knowledge of the content of each concept. The correct result is also related to the validity of the tools we are using.
1-BENEFITS 2-CONCEPTS 3-TOOLS 4-PROCESS
Clearly, we only use tools that are in accordance with the concepts we have just defined.
31-The time frame
The time is by itself an important tool: The only possibility to make sound predictions is to set up a frame of time not too much extended. The further away the horizon, the less precise and valuable the forecast. For example a loser in a poker has a high possibility to remain a loser if there is only one deal to play. On the contrary, if there are ten deals to come, he can end the game as a winner. We are relatively sure about what will happen tomorrow but it is absurd to imagine what might happen in 2500 years!
As a result, we have chosen 2030 as our temporal horizon. Through our analysis over the past 30 years, we can anticipate the coming 26 years. Most of the people who are reading these lines will still be alive in 2030. For older people, this horizon is more likely to concern their children.
32-Trend analysis
As we have defined it above, a trend represents the evolution of some repetitive events. Trends analysis is mainly based on past and present historical data. Then, you have to ask what is the driver causing the past trend and how it will act in the future. Thanks to this analysis you can predict the future trend.
Unfortunately, many people only fit a curve to the past data and just extend the curve into the future. Such an extrapolation could lead to absurd results. You cannot assume that things will change in the future according the way they have been changing in the past. The driver analysis is a must.
Trends analysis in population relies on a lot of tools that can help to reasonably predict the evolution of a population in quantity ( Fertility rates, infant mortality, yearly growth rate, population momentum-Report to population ) and in quality ( Literacy rates, primary completion rate, school enrollment and so on ). As a result, the UN produces extended long range predictions: Go to www.un.org/esa/. It means that we are quite sure what the population will be in 2030 and we have just to adopt the UN predictions.
Trend analysis in economy can rely on many criteria. According to the FWA economic theory ( Go to ecodev ), we mainly utilize the yearly growth rates of the Gross national Income (GNI), the capital output ratio, the gross capital formation, the % of high technology in manufactured exports, the income per capita evolution and so on. All these data come from an unique source: The World bank. About the definition of these aggregates, go to : www.worldbank.org/data.
Once this analysis of past data realized, we do not simply extrapolate the past growth rate. In examining a trend, we always ask what is the driver at work. For example, Let's us suppose a country that has got a growth rate of 5% over the past years due to the rise in oil prices. Sure, we will not extrapolate this rate in the future, notably if the country has zero technology and a high illiteracy rate.
The most difficult is to chose the right growth rate because a small difference has a high impact on the result: 100 at 5% give 355 over 26 years. With 6% you get 455. When you deal with big GNI such as China or the US, one point can change the global picture of a region in the future.
Trend analysis regarding the technical progress is measured by the numbers of patents, scientists, expenditures in research and development. In this matter, the paradigm is quite determinant. In the globalization area there is a trust in science and progress. In the islamic area there is an hostility toward any sciences. People only accept to use products ( Such as mobiles ) invented by other societies. As a result, there are not too much uncertainties in the future of science. Moreover, all the future new products are yet in the laboratories because there is a long span of time between an invention and its marketing.
Trend analysis hardly applies to politics. We may only list the number of democracies in the world ( Report to www.freedomhouse.org ) but the decrease or increase is quite meaningless. Politic facts are hard to predict. In the 1960s, nobody could have foreseen the collapse of the Soviet block. Sometimes, the same event has different outcomes. For example, the great depression led to a move toward the left in the US and to the Nazism in Germany. Good or bad governance cannot be predicted.
Regarding wars and conflicts the prediction is easier. Just like the earthquakes , most of the conflicts occur when two paradigms collide. For example, there is an arch of instability along a line going from South East Asia to Western Europe and confronting free societies and the authoritarian Islam. By opposition, North America and North East Asia (China) belong to the same paradigm: globalization and the experts consensus does not expect any major conflict between these two regions before 2030.
Regarding the internal politics, the nature of the paradigm is the main tool. A free society does not suffer many troubles and according to the bell curve most of people gather in an area going from the left center to the right center. It means there are few outbursts of violence ( Except when a country endures a shift in paradigm such as France with the Muslim riots). On the other hand, in authoritarian societies, prevalent aggression leads to constant internal wars, genocides and so on. More accurate predictions also take in account cross results about the other components ( Economy, population) and about experts's judgment and consensus analysis.
33-Probabilities
There are many unpredictable events such as pandemics, financial collapses, natural disasters and so on. To deal with them, we use our risk assessment matrix : Consider the next drawing (Go to Decision making process).
DRAWING 2
Low probabilities events can be eliminated whatever their impact. Events with high probability and low impact such as internal wars and terrorist strikes are yet integrated in our trend analysis. Finally, only events with high probability and high impact (The black square) must be carefully isolated and studied because they could modify the best predictions ( For example, a terrorist strike killing hundred thousand people could lead to panic and to a new great depression).
In this case, we can only recommend the measures preventing their occurrence and make the hypothesis that the policy makers will adopt them. According to this assumption, we can ignore such events. It's the only case we use a preferred future.
Having described the tools, we have now to indicate how we process and how you can read these surveys.
1-BENEFITS 2-CONCEPTS 3-TOOLS 4-PROCESS
41-Regional surveys
We
have surveyed the ten main regions of the world. In each region,
our analysis has concerned each country ( Except some no significant islands
and remote areas): The USA and
North america, Central
America and Caribbeans,
Australia and oceania,
China and North East Asia,
South
East Asia, India
and South Asia, Middle
east and North africa, Sub
saharan Africa, South
America,
Europe
In
each region and country, our diagnosis examines the
paradigm and the main driver at work. The diagnosis relies on data,
on travels (
126 countries visited )
and interview of informative persons. Finally,
considering the paradigm,
the
drivers and the past
trends, we can predict the future regarding
the main components of any society: Population , GNI, income per capita,
technical level and political situation. Sometimes, we set up
some recommendations bur our predictions never suppose their implementation
(Except for major terrorist strikes- See above). It remains
an
objective method .
42-Final survey
Then, we have summarized all the regional studies in a final survey. However this aggregate revealed some cross regional facts that could influence a specific region. It means that we have conduct a constant feedback between the summary and the regional surveys. Moreover, only the final survey clearly shows the confrontation of the paradigms and drivers. As a result, it brings more insights about some political trends that were hidden at first glance. Clearly, the final survey is not only an aggregate and brings new food for thought in many matters.
43-How to get it
The logical way is to read the regional surveys ( In following the above order ) and the final study by the end. If you have not too much time, report directly to the final survey: Global trends-2030. Finally, if you have only five minutes, go directly to the summary of the final survey. You will find here a single picture mapping the entire world in 2030 with its drivers and main results regarding Population, GNI, Income per capita, technology and politics. This mapping corresponds to our unique scenario. It is a web exclusivity.
Begin right now with the The USA and North America module and enjoy it.
1-BENEFITS 2-CONCEPTS 3-TOOLS 4-PROCESS
www.cia.gov : The "worldfactbook"
Home page Legal advices Privacy policy Search engines Contact