Malaise about Globalization

MALAISE ABOUT GLOBALIZATION
IS GLOBALIZATION ENDED?

1-SUMMARY

Our previous survey: "Defence of globalization" was written in 2000. By this happy year, Globalization flourished and people thought that democracy should extend to the entire world. Nobel prize Amartya Sen wrote "Development as Freedom" and Fukayama predicted an end of the history. In the same time the former communist scholars organized their anti globalization network with out dated arguments. In this context our survey just provided with a lot of answers to the protestors. We opposed figures to figures like in a propaganda war and clearly it was easy to show that the anti globalization arguments were wrong.

Today, by the end of 2004, the mood is quite different. I am obliged to report some very disturbing facts (regression in many countries, increase of criminal activities, childhood in danger, flow of asylum seekers and so on). These facts are not in accordance with the globalization scheme and they indicate a real malaise both in the theory and the practice of the Globalization.

Globalization was based on a macroeconomic vision (the Washington consensus) and the intend to extend freedom, human rights and democracy to the entire world. It appears that we have not enough taken in account the cultural facts and notably the moral and religious. Moreover, we have underestimated the political factors such as the dictatorships ability to rally uneducated people and to generate a new terrorism. We have also too much oppose a benign neglect to the chaos spreading over many third world countries. These failures are the causes of the malaise we observe.

What is more, since the World Trade attacks, instead of globalization, we are confronted to a new war. Obviously, the extend of globalization is not compatible with this new war. We have to imagine a new agenda in order to preserve the assets of a limited globalization. This pause should be a good opportunity to better define our method and notably to emphasize on education. Once again, I claim that as long as education will remain managed by the enemies of democracy (Such as former communist scholars and other supporters of moral and cultural relativism) we cannot expect any real progress in the world. I mean that we need a revolution in education and a pause in the globalization should provide with the opportunity to do it.

1-SUMMARY - 2-DISTURBING FACTS - 3-CULTURAL CHALLENGES - 4-POLITICAL CHALLENGES - 5-LIMITED GLOBALIZATION - 6-CONCLUSION

2-DISTURBING FACTS

I will list a lot of disturbing facts. I do not mean that the Globalization is responsible of these facts. I only underline that these facts are not in accordance with the globalization scheme.They signal a real malaise both about the theory and the practice of the Globalization. In fact, we think that a more comprehensive globalization would bring the solution.

21-Uneven economic results

One could say that globalization remains a success story because the world growth is constantly increasing . However, when we are going to the specifics, we may observe that some regions do not progress: Of course, It could be said that the lack of democracy explains this situation. However, we must consider that some of these countries have engaged themselves on the path of democracy (Such as Argentina, Senegal, Uruguay) and have only got poor results.

A recent World Bank survey says that "some 2 billion people ( particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union) live in countries that are being left behind. These countries have been unable to increase their integration with the world economy, their ratio of trade to GDP either remained flat or actually declined. On average, these economies have contracted, poverty has risen, and education levels have risen less rapidly than in the more globalized countries".

22-Childhood Under Threat

A new UNICEF survey (The State of the World's Children 2005-Childhood Under Threat) reports that more than half the world's children are suffering extreme deprivations from poverty, war and HIV/AIDS. According to this survey, more than 1 billion children are suffering of seven basic "deprivations" :

640 million children do not have adequate shelter
500 million children have no access to sanitation
400 million children do not have access to safe water
300 million children lack access to information
270 million children have no access to health care services
140 million children have never been to school
90 million children are severely food-deprived

The survey notes that 55 of 59 armed conflicts taking place between 1990 and 2003 involved war within, rather than between, countries. The impact on children has been high: Nearly half of the 3.6 million people killed in war since 1990 have been children. Hundreds of thousands of children in conflict situations around the world are still recruited or abducted as soldiers, victims of landmine's, forced to witness violence and killing, orphaned by violence, targets of sexual violence.

One billion children means about 500 millions girls. These girls will marry. Since they are mostly living in Africa and the Middle East ( With high growth rate), each girl will have an average of six children in the next decades. It means that these girls will generate 3 billion people (500 million*6). Considering that these mothers have been deprived of food, education, decency and so one: What humanity are we preparing? It looks like a nightmare!

23-The Free trade theory does not work

According to the Standard Free Trade Theory, globalization is expected to equalize the incomes and to reduce the need to migrate. Trade Theory posits that the richer countries, which have more capital, should specialize in the high-tech goods. Meanwhile the poor countries, with their cheaper workers, should specialize in the labor-intensive activities. The poorer countries should then be able to send goods instead of people.

Today, economic migrations should slow down in accordance with the globalization. In fact, the stream of migrants from third World countries toward the North does not stop: It increases in magnitude. Go to our survey "International migrations"

Moreover, Mercantilism is back: Globalization meets a strong opposition about agriculture, cultural services and delocalizations in the developed countries. The WTO makes few progress in dismantling the protectionism on agricultural and cultural products. The European Union agricultural policy is estimated to cause the poor countries a loss of $20 billion annually. The US policy regarding cotton also impedes many poor africans countries. Go to "Mercantilism is back" by Jean Louis Caccomo, Board Advisor.

1-SUMMARY - 2-DISTURBING FACTS - 3-CULTURAL CHALLENGES - 4-POLITICAL CHALLENGES - 5-LIMITED GLOBALIZATION - 6-CONCLUSION

3-CULTURAL CHALLENGES

Globally, we have not taken in account the cultural differences: Freedom was expected to flow over the world without resistance and to boost the development everywhere. In fact, cultures are unequal regarding the ability to adopt freedom and to bring human happiness.

31-Cultural handicaps versus Cultural relativism

The idea that freedom and creativity are the main drivers remains true because Democracy always brings an improvement. However, the scale of the improvement may differ according to the cultural traditions.

Let's us make a comparison. It's impossible to get any agriculture without water resources. In such a situation, any ground either fertile or unfertile looks like an homogeneous desert. You cannot observe any differences. On the contrary, when water is flowing, this desert becomes green and according to the fertility of the ground, you will observe a magnificent vegetal cover in some places and a poor vegetation in another place. Of course, the global situation is better than before. On the other hand, a large diversity appears.

Now let's us compare the freedom with the water and the ground with the civilizations. When freedom lacks, all the civilizations look like the same: Authoritarian societies based on terror, ignorance, superstitions and so on. When freedom extends, there is a general progress but some civilizations flourish and some other only get mitigated results. It means that the cultural values play a role. It means also that a greater diversity appears when freedom is flowing everywhere. Look at the next drawing.

DRAWING 1

This diversity applies not only between countries but also into a singular country composed with ethnic diversity: According to the different values, the wealth inequalities between the different ethnic groups may increase.

In taking in account the cultural differences, we may explain why some countries are left being. Clearly, Africa and the Middle East suffer of cultural handicaps. Such a diagnosis could help to adapt the policy of globalization: In some regions, we have better to focus on education rather than on the interest rate policy.

32-Moral dimension

We have not taken in account the moral dimension of the globalization. On the contrary, this enterprise was launched in a mood of moral relativism vehiculed by a wrong education. We have not realized that Capitalism cannot work without a minimum of ethical values.

As a result, the criminal activities are on the increase and largely benefit of the globalization. According to our exclusive calculations, they account for about $2000 billion (World corruption, Drug trafficking, counterfeiting, prostitution, monkey business and so on). This figure is six fold the entire African GDP (316 billions) and accounts for 20% of the US GDP. It is a massive phenomena and a real cancer destroying the benefits of globalization in many poor countries.Go to our survey titled "world corruption" and to Modern slavery, a fascinating survey by PL Booth.

This situation introduces a negative change in our societies: Marx predicted the diminishing of the farmers class and the emergence of a new high paid salary class. He did not predict the appearance of a new middlemen class only specialized in laundering of dirty money, facilitation, organization and management of corruption. Indeed, we observe everywhere many middlemen with easy money. I mean a money that they spent ostensibly and they have earned without any effort. It means that more and more people are involved in corruption and illegal activities.

What is more, globalization intensifies the relations with the fake business class of the dictatorships. More the globalization extends, and more it is confronted to the corrupt leaders of the authoritarian societies. As a result of this confrontation, a new society is appearing : not the free society, nor the classic authoritarian society but the mafia society. The next drawing illustrates this process

DRAWING 2

If we do not pay attention to this phenomenon, be sure that like an internal virus it could destroy the entire globalization and our free society.

33-Religious dimension

Since the churches play a minor role in most free societies, we have not foreseen the consequences of globalization on some religions and notably Islam. As a result, we may posit that globalization has increased aggression against the western values in many countries.

With globalization, there are more contacts between cultures through communication and information. Thanks to this facilitation, our societies have propagated some values and behaviors such as the sexual liberation (contraception, abortion, tolerance towards homosexuality and so on). In response , some religions, and notably Islam, have reinforced the sex repression.

When sex is repressed another primal instinct is growing: Aggression. As a result, and instead to be chanelled towards productive goals, aggression is more and more turned against the western societies which are compared to the devil due to their sex liberation. Consider the next drawing:

DRAWING 3

We can assume that during the 19th, hostility against the West was not so high because sexuality was, by this time, equally repressed in all the civilizations. Today more our sexuality is liberated in the West, more Islam has to restrain sexuality in its own field and consequently more the aggression increases.

You can observe the proof of that vicious circle: Muslim women are more and more veiled including among migrants inhabiting western countries.

1-SUMMARY - 2-DISTURBING FACTS - 3-CULTURAL CHALLENGES - 4-POLITICAL CHALLENGES - 5-LIMITED GLOBALIZATION - 6-CONCLUSION

4-POLITICAL CHALLENGES

Globalization has begun in the eighties and flourished in the nineties. With the Soviet Union collapse, people thought that democracy and globalization should extend to the entire world. Clearly, we have underestimated the political factors such as the resistance of the dictatorships and their ability to rally uneducated people and to generate a new terrorism. We have also too much oppose a benign neglect to the chaos spreading over many third world countries.

41-Authoritarian society resistance

In 2003, according to www.freedomhouse.org there are 88 free countries and 104 partly free and not free. It is interesting to note that this latter figure is quite unchanged since 1973. In fact, democracy has extended in the former Soviet block (Notably in the eastern European countries) and in a few countries in Africa. Since the nineties, the extend of democracy is quite stopped. It seems blocked by a hard rock in Africa and the Middle East.

We have underestimated the ability of the dictatorships to generate a new terrorism. More and more, it appears that the Jihadism is an invention of the petromonarchies in order to resist to the globalization and the extend of democracy. They constantly tell us the following speech " We have to keep our absolute power in order to fight the Jihadism and to protect you!". Of course, in listening that, we are inclined to reinforce their power!

On the other hand, we have also underestimated their capacity to rally uneducated people through the extend of Islamism. Of course, this Islamism in turn generates terrorism or Jihadism. It looks like a vicious circle: A pure invention of the dictatorships secret services is going to be a sad reality involving large masses of people.

Since globalization and free trade imply democracy, the consequences of this situation are obvious: Democracy being stopped, the globalization cannot perform its universal goals.

42-Authoritarian society legacy

We have also too much oppose a benign neglect to the chaos spreading over many third world countries. Many African regions are returning to the middle ages. Globally wars and insecurity are on the increase. Discoursing upon globalization in such countries is just good for UN conferences and NGO. The real question is: Have we the means and the willingness to restore peace and order in these countries?

This situation has many consequences. Firstly, direct investments are impeded (Too much risks for investors in some regions). Secondly, the phenomenon of asylum seekers is increasing. Thirdly, this chaos favors many criminal activities.

Clearly, we find here the real cause of many disturbing facts.

43-Inner resistance

Many free world governments have not taken the necessary reforms (Notably in in matter of education and immigration in order to limit the flow of asylum seekers)

As a result, there is a global fear about the globalization in our own countries: lost of national identity, delocalization, insecurity and so on. Of course, the anti globalization movement is surfing on these fears. The protestors expose at large the imaginary dangers of globalization such as the global warming. On the other hand, they carefully conceal the fact that Islamism is rising in our societies. In doing so, they only want to destroy our free societies according to their own agenda.

Unfortunately, some prophecies have the power to become reality! War began in september 2001 and instead of globalization, we may see the four horsemen of apocalypse : Conquest, War, Death and Pestilence galloping over the world.

It means that the present globalization is finishing.

1-SUMMARY - 2-DISTURBING FACTS - 3-CULTURAL CHALLENGES - 4-POLITICAL CHALLENGES - 5-LIMITED GLOBALIZATION - 6-CONCLUSION

5-IN DEFENCE OF A LIMITED GLOBALIZATION

In some ways, History is a perpetual renewal. By the end of WW2, the allies expected an increase of democracy, human rights, free trade and so on. However they quickly met the Soviet Union opposition and three issues appeared: To make war, to cooperate, or to accept a divided world with the iron curtain and the containment. Finally, the latter solution prevailed.

Today, we are confronted to the same issues and our better guess is to adopt a similar decision: Obviously, the extend of globalization cannot be compatible with the new war. We have better to focus on a limited globalization and to set up a strong separation with the dictatorships. This pause will give us the opportunity to better prepare a further enlargement.

51-Some questions.

The World is at war. The real question is: Are globalization and free trade compatible with a war economy? In other words, may we continue with the present globalization or have we better to pause?

Firstly, everybody agrees that democracy is a prerequisite of any globalization: Have we the means and the willingness to extend it despite the resistance encountered? By 2004/2005, we have got two new democracies: Afghanistan and may be Iraq. It remains 102 countries partly free or not free!

Secondly, democracy implies human rights and liberal reforms such as the civil equality, the abolishment of polygamy, stoning, mutilation and the entire sharia’a. Have we the means and the willingness to impose such reforms? For example, have we the means to impose a sex liberation in the Middle East? In fact, we may impose democracy but it's impossible to change rapidly people habits. It needs a long time and a large education as a prerequisite.

In short, experience shows that democracy and freedom do not flow as easily as it a was expected. Secondly we have not the means and the willingness to export democracy through wars. It means that we have to imagine a new agenda in order to preserve the assets of a limited globalization. This pause should be a good opportunity to better define our method and notably to emphasize on education.

52-Cooperation: a bad answer

This pause does not mean that we have to cooperate with the dictatorships. The Europeans leaders plead openly for this cooperation because they expect a decrease of the terrorist pressure. In fact, this "Munich agreement" would expose the free world to a constant contamination and a permanent blackmail:

-Contamination of corruption coming from the undeveloped countries.

-Contamination of illegal immigration.

-Finally, contamination of wars and terrorism through a constant blackmail.

In collaborating with the dictatorships, people expect to avoid war. In fact, as Churchill said, they will get both humiliation and war.

53-Containment: The best guess

Since we have not the means and the willingness to export democracy through wars, the best guess is to limit our objectives. Firstly we have certainly to wage two limited wars against the mother bees of the terrorism :Saudi Arabia and Iran

531-Limited war

Some reforms are expected in Saudi Arabia but every people think that it could need a long span of time. Within this period, Islamism will going on in expanding its troubles, violence's and terrorism. Such a situation cannot be accepted. Of course, we know that this country possess the largest oil fields in the world and nobody wants to storm them. Whatever the solution, the objective is to prevent the islamists to use oil money. This goal involves a tough diplomatic action backed up by a a light military pressure

The second Islamic tank is Iran. We cannot accept that the Mullah power gets a nuclear weapon: In a near future, every European capital would be within range of ballistic missile based in Iran. Since it should be unwise to trust in the Mullah promises, a diplomatic option cannot bring any solution. It means that a preemptive strike must be on the agenda. On the other hand, Iran is not Saudi Arabia. Iran was a civilized area before the fall of the Shah and a powerful educated middle class still exists among the population. Young people are notably eager to topple the regime. This goal can be performed through an indirect policy based on a strong support to the opposition.

532-Immaterial curtain

Once these two dog states toppled, an immaterial curtain should separate the free world from the dictatorships: No trade, no migrations, no visits. Of course some people may argue that such a separation could boost the terrorism. They forget that our vulnerability to terrorism is only due to the presence of a fifth islamist column on our ground. The good question is: How long shall we tolerate these fundamentalist groups which are plotting terrific strikes against our civilians, like recently in Spain? It means that the rioters and the Islamists should be expelled of the entire free world.

Of course, all these dictatorships once isolated like Cuba today, will return to the nomadic life. Their people are expected to give up their phantasms and thank to education (see below) they should join our ideal. Then, a new step would begin in extending freedom and the globalization to the entire world. It means that we do not renounce to our ideals. We just adopt a more pragmatic agenda

54-Preserve the assets of a limited globalization

According to this containment policy, instead to have a global world village, we will get a free world and a black planet inhabited by the dictatorships and orbiting all around. Look at the next drawing.

DRAWING 4

I think that this scheme can preserve the assets of the present globalization. This limited globalization should be ruled by a new alliance only open to the free countries. Firstly, the Great Alliance should replace the UN which is more and more a machine against democracies, free trade, economic growth and scientific or technical progress.

Secondly, the primary goal should be to neutralize the jihadist network and to overthrow some dictatorships in the most afflicted countries. Genocides such as Rwanda and today Darfour should be strictly prevented. Thirdly, We have to help and to support the poor populations which are threatened by the rising anarchy. In order to reach these goals, the Alliance could establish an international trusteeship system for the administration of some specific territories ( Such as in Kossovo).

In this limited frame, the globalization would be easily intensified. For example the US could propose to Europe a great transatlantic market. Such a great market will definitely torpedo the concept based on an Europe opposed to the United States. It will also eliminate the notion of a "Mediterranean Europe" which is just a tool for the islamization of the entire continent.

54-Preparing a new step-First: Education

This survey has shown that the present globalization has been badly prepared and managed. It could be said that this failure is responsible of the war. Anyway, the pause imposed by this war should be used to better preparing a future step of the globalization. In this view, we must assert that education is the key of any new move towards a greater globalization.

I claim that as long as education will remain managed by the enemies of democracy such as former communist scholars and other supporters of moral and cultural relativism, we cannot expect any real progress in the world. I mean that we need a revolution in education and a pause in the globalization should be the opportunity to do it.

We repeat that education is a world challenge: In poor countries, the bulk of young people will far exceed the financial and human capacities of traditional education. School enrollments will decline and the number of illiterate will grow up. In developed countries, despite large financial resources, the traditional education gives more and more bad results: logical thought is regressing. Many people deprived of basic knowledge cherish a lot of false ideas. It is disappointing to observe that the opponents of democracy too often arise from educated people. It means that the content of the actual education has to be completely reviewed.

Indeed, the content of education has not evolved and is not adapted to free societies: Negative beliefs coming from authoritarian societies are still carried on by public and private education. For example, all the feelings and behaviors you learn through classic literature are inspired from the heroic legend of the authoritarian society and are quite un adapted to the real world. People who do act in the same way would today be put in jail or in a mental hospital ! Negative beliefs do not work in the real world. On the other hand, the present education professes moral and cultural relativism and we have just seen its wrong effects.

Moreover, among most all-human activities, education is one, which has never taken advantage from technical progress. We teach and we learn nowadays as in Socrates’ century. People have to meet in a single place, on a rigid time schedule, and to follow always the same out-dated content. Clearly, we need a revolution in educational affairs. Internet and multi media technologies have potential to revolutionize the learning process. It’s a pity to see that all this tools are today available's on the market and that they are only used to promote play stations and so on. According to our own studies, a transnational corporate could provide on line secondary education to students in the entire world at a lower price and with faster results than in the traditional education. This global learning system could reduce illiteracy, promote positive values and finally provide us with the ultimate weapon against outdated ideologies.

1-SUMMARY - 2-DISTURBING FACTS - 3-CULTURAL CHALLENGES - 4-POLITICAL CHALLENGES - 5-LIMITED GLOBALIZATION - 6-CONCLUSION

6-CONCLUSION

There is yet a large debate about the present globalization. Many scholars have produced some bright essays . Let's us just quote "The defence of global capitalism" by Johan Norberg, "In Defense of Globalization" by Jagdish Bhagwati, "Globalization and its discontents" by Joseph Stiglitz, "The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else" by Hernando Desoto, "World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability" by Amy Chua.

Unfortunately, these scholars have not seen an obvious and trivial fact: The present globalization is ended. It ended with the beginning of a new war.

Right now, we have to prepare a new globalization. Economic and financial topics will remain quite important but we will have to focus on Education, health and security. Globalization remains the solution to the world problems. It's worth to prepare it carefully.

1-SUMMARY - 2-DISTURBING FACTS - 3-CULTURAL CHALLENGES - 4-POLITICAL CHALLENGES - 5-LIMITED GLOBALIZATION - 6-CONCLUSION

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