FW1 - Mental Imagery
FW2 - Visioning
FW3 - Creativity
FW4 - Micro economy
FW5 - Macro economy
FW6 - Globalization
FW7 - Real world
FW8 - Country rating
FW9 - Global trends
1. Basic assumptions
2. Big pictures
3. World overview
4. Threats and opportunities
5. Do it yourself
6. Author
7. Appendix
FW10 - Sector rating
FW11 - Business idea
FW12 - First sketch
FW13 - Consumer analysis
FW14 - Supplier analysis
FW15 - Marketing mix
FW16 - Operations
FW17 - Organization
FW18 - Accounting
FW19 - Financial statements
FW20 - Financial analysis
FW21 - Cash flow
FW22 - Business name
FW23 - Decision making process
FW24 - Check up point
FW25 - Communication
FW26 - Negotiation
FW27 - Raising money
FW28 - Project management
FW29 - Management
FW30 - Strategy
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FW9-GLOBAL TRENDS

YOUR POSITION

look at the map

MAP

296 days before opening.

1. Basic assumptions 2. Big pictures 3. World overview 4. Threats and opportunities 5. Do it yourself 6. Coaching 7. Appendix

INTRODUCTION

Global trends is based on futurology. Futurology combines researches about the demographic, economic, politic and scientific development of humanity.

Duration

Lesson: 1hour

External readings: 3hours

Do it yourself: 0

Total: 4 hours

Objectives

Our objectives are:

-To give you a world market picture by 203O.

-To show you the main trends leading the world.

By the end, you will be able to insert your business idea in a prospective trend.

1. Basic assumptions 2. Big pictures 3. World overview 4. Threats and opportunities 5. Do it yourself 6. Coaching 7. Appendix

1-BASIC ASSUMPTIONS

We have chosen 2030 as our temporal horizon. We can describe the world as it will be in 2030 with a margin of uncertainty of just 10%, as far as the principal aggregates are concerned (population, economy, GDP etc.)

Important warning:

Futurology is based on current facts. It analyses these facts. It extends them into the future. The further away the horizon, the less precise and valuable the forecast. We are relatively sure about what will happen tomorrow. It is absurd and of no use at all to imagine what might happen in 2500 years?

Through our experience of the past 30 years, we can anticipate the coming 30 years. In fact, most of the people who are reading these lines will still be alive in 2030. For older people, this horizon is more likely to concern their children or, if not, their grandchildren.

We must also define our perspective, adopting the following hypotheses:

-Any resuscitation of fascism or communism is out of the question in Japan, the United States and enlarged Europe.

The memory of the horrors caused by these regimes is today still very vivid. This will still be true in 30 years time because today's children will by then have become adults.

-There will be no Cold War between China and the West. Of course, there is some uncertainty about such an assumption.

Indeed, in 2030, China's GDP will still be lower than that of the USA and China cannot make up for this difference by forming alliances since its two main neighbors (Japan and India) are opposed to its regime.

1. Basic assumptions 2. Big pictures 3. World overview 4. Threats and opportunities 5. Do it yourself 6. Coaching 7. Appendix

2-THE BIG PICTURES

21-Population

The world's population will reach 9.3 billion people, compared to 6 billion in 2000.

Overall fertility is decreasing in every region of the world, except India and Sub-Saharan Africa.

The ten most inhabited countries in the world will still almost exactly the same as in 2000, except for Russia and Japan, replaced by Mexico and the Philippines.

These ten countries will represent 58 % of the world's population.

Sub-Saharan Africa will grow from 640 million inhabitants in 2000 to 1400 million in 2030!

Regions	Population in 2000	Population in 2030
South Asia and the Pacific:	1 990	2 800
Central Asia:	1 380	2 490
Sub-Saharan Africa:	642	1 400
Latin America:	510	840
Enlarged Europe:	570	620
Russia and the Ukraine:	190	200
The Middle East and North Africa:	290	550
North America (the USA and Canada):	300	400
	= 5 870	= 9 300
Other economies
Miscellaneous:	130	0
Total	= 6 000	= 9 300

 

22-Economy

221-World GDP

The world GDP will reach 85,000 billion US$ compared to 30,000 in 2000.

Important warning:

Extending statistics can lead to serious mistakes. In the 1960s, futurologists forecasted that Japan's GDP would overtake USA in 2000. This is not at all the case.

Today, extending the growth rates currently experienced in China or Korea would result in the situation described for 2030, but the forecast must be judged with caution.

At first glance, the world in 2030 will not be fundamentally different from the world in 2000. The fifteen foremost world economic powers will be the same as those on the list for 2000 (except the Netherlands replaced by Taiwan).

Nevertheless, important changes will appear in the ranking:

-The USA will be still the greatest power, but its share in world GDP will drop from 28.5 to 25 %

-China will become the second power with 22 % of world GDP

-The European Union, including 10 additional countries (Turkey, Norway, Bulgaria, the Czech republic, Hungary, Rumania, the Baltic states, Poland, Slovenian, Slovakia) will represent just 18 % of world GDP compared to 28 % in 2000.

-As for Japan, its share of world GDP will decrease from 14% in 2000 to 7% in 2030.

DRAWING 1

222-GDP per capita

Considering homogeneous regions, The GDP per capita gives us the following breakdown:

in 2030, 3.1 billion inhabitants overall, i.e. 1/3 of the world's population, will be on an income that exceeds 10 000 $ per inhabitant, i.e. an income comparable to that of Spain or Greece today.

North and South America and Europe will retain high standards of living.

Central Asia and the Middle East will remain poor.

The situation in sub saharan Africa will be catastrophic—GDP per inhabitant, which was $300 in 2000 will drop to $221 in 2030.

1. Basic assumptions 2. Big pictures 3. World overview 4. Threats and opportunities 5. Do it yourself 6. Coaching 7. Appendix

3-WORLD OVERVIEW

The pole between Asia and the Pacific will definitely have greater influence and will play an economic role at least equal if not superior to that of America.

Taking into account every single country, both large and small, gives the following breakdown of GDP between the 3 principal economic zones of the world:

This situation gives us quite a different picture from the familiar one for the year 2000.

-In 2000, the world was based on three main centers of wealth: North America, Western Europe and Japan.

-In 2030 the world's center of gravity will move towards the Far East, Oceania and North and South America.

We particularly note a Meridian divide that separates a progressing world (Pacific an America) and a old world, notably Europe surrounded by regions which remain very undeveloped.

The first world, A, represents 71% of world GDP, the second, B, 24%.

The overall outlook is the result of strong tendencies already witnessed in the year 2000.

DRAWING 2: WORLD OVERVIEW IN 2000

GDP per capita: white: $10000; Gray: $2500 to 10000; Stripes: $350 to 2500 ; Black: below $350

DRAWING 3: WORLD OVERVIEW IN 2030

GDP per capita: white: $10000; Gray: $2500 to 10000; Stripes: $350 to 2500 ; Black: below $350

1. Basic assumptions 2. Big pictures 3. World overview 4. Threats and opportunities 5. Do it yourself 6. Coaching 7. Appendix

4-THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES

41-Threats

411-Ecological threats

-We have no control over the major danger represented by the deforestation in the third world. In just a few hours, deforestation can cause land to disappear through storms, as well as leading to desertification, with all its consequences on food, and on climate.

Arable land is an organic composite that is probably unique in the universe. It took millions of years to make this humus. In a few hours, through excessive deforestation, we would destroy something that is as precious as the air we breath.

On a world scale, between 1990 and 1995 that is to say in 5 years, we destroyed 500 000 km² of forests, i.e. the equivalent of the surface area of France.

At this rate, the Amazonian rainforests in South East Asia and Central Africa will be seriously damaged by 2030, with irreversible consequences for the climate. 3 000 000 km² of forests risk deforestation between 2000 and 2030, i.e. the equivalent of 6 times the surface area of France!

The problem of water will be a serious threat in the entire North Africa — Middle East region, as well as in part of Central Asia. Solutions exist, but the authoritarian nature of the governments in these regions is likely to hinder the process of putting them into practice. Further permanent causes of local conflicts will result.

412-Political threats

Political developments are hard to predict. In the 1960s, nobody could have foretold the break up of the Soviet block. We can, however make reasonable hypotheses.

-We have excluded the return of fascism and communism because the memory of the horrors caused by these regimes is today still very vivid. This will still be true in 30 years time because today's children will by then have become adults.

-We have also excluded a new Cold War between China and the West.

In 2030, supposing that China becomes a democratic country, the entire zone A (the Pacific and North and South America) will be made up of free countries (with the exception of Burma and Vietnam).

In zone B, the extended European Union and India will have as their neighbors zones characterized by authoritarian or chaotic regimes.

In short, the world in 2030 will be freer but will still include localized zones of authoritarianism, economic regression and chaos.

42-Opportunities

421-Knowledge

Futurology is often confused with science fiction because we expect scientific forecasts that disrupt the course of the world. In more modest ways, we will now state the content of knowledge and where to find it.

Current developments will see further advances in three domains:

-Genetics: work will mainly concentrate on prevention of diseases and on prostheses. We will manage to invent prostheses that make it possible to cure certain types of blindness. Advances should also be made for the paralyzed. On the other hand, the possibility of improving intellectual capabilities of individuals by means of genetics no doubt lies in the more distant future.

-Weaponry :Non lethal weapons will be developed. They do not injure or kill the opponent. They are based on the use of microwaves that temporarily disrupt the conscious faculties of the enemy. These non-lethal weapons will represent an amazing progress in the history of humanity, by avoiding the killing previously inherent to conflict.

-New energy sources we will develop the first experimental fusion reactors. The industrial development of this inexhaustible source of energy will take place in the years to come. However, we will manage to develop satisfactory electric vehicles.

This development will result in a petrol consumption drop which will affect the economies in Middle Eastern and African countries. It will bring also a solution to the global warming.

The knowledge will be concentrated in north america and in Japan. The role played by Europe will probably be less important for three reasons:

-The excessive weight of the State in education and research

-The limitations of outdated regulations

-Religious misgivings about work in genetics.

422-Ethical advances

In 2030, a great deal of basic evolution will have taken place in the most advanced countries: North America and the Scandinavian countries, Japan, Australia,

The latest repressive structures will have disappeared. Education will be rid of all the negative beliefs it currently spreads.

Paid work will have practically disappeared in the most developed countries. Individuals will work as consultants, suppliers of services or as shareholders.

Leisure will dominate.

External readings

Go to: www.cia.gov. The CIA survey takes 2015 as horizon. It leads to conclusion like those of this course.

1. Basic assumptions 2. Big pictures 3. World overview 4. Threats and opportunities 5. Do it yourself 6. Coaching 7. Appendix

Lesson summary

Make careful note of these forecasts to finalize your business idea.

In terms of market bear in mind Pacific Asia and America. Economic activity will be centralized in this huge area.

Take notice of the global advance in knowledge's.

1. Basic assumptions 2. Big pictures 3. World overview 4. Threats and opportunities 5. Do it yourself 6. Coaching 7. Appendix

DO IT YOURSELF

Just go on in searching your business idea

1. Basic assumptions 2. Big pictures 3. World overview 4. Threats and opportunities 5. Do it yourself 6. Coaching 7. Appendix

AUTHOR

Click on Contact

1. Basic assumptions 2. Big pictures 3. World overview 4. Threats and opportunities 5. Do it yourself 6. Coaching 7. Appendix

APPENDIX

In the case of Japan and the European countries, the rate over the last 10 years was chosen.

The rate over the last 10 years was also chosen for Mexico, Australia, Brazil and India in order to take into account the start of these countries' development.

For all other countries, the average rate over 20 years was used.

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