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Global trends is based on futurology. Futurology combines researches about the demographic, economic, politic and scientific development of humanity.
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Total: 4 hours
Our objectives are:
-To give you a world market picture by 203O.
-To show you the main trends leading the world.
By the end, you will be able to insert your business idea in a prospective trend.
We have chosen 2030 as our temporal horizon. We can describe the world as it will be in 2030 with a little margin of uncertainty, as far as the principal aggregates are concerned (population, economy, GNI etc.)
Futurology is based on current facts. It analyses these facts. It extends them into the future. The further away the horizon, the less precise and valuable the forecast. We are relatively sure about what will happen tomorrow. It is absurd and of no use at all to imagine what might happen in 2500 years?
Through our experience of the past 30 years, we can anticipate the coming 15 years. In fact, most of the people who are reading these lines will still be alive in 2030. For older people, this horizon is more likely to concern their children or their grandchildren.
We must also define our perspective, adopting the following hypotheses:
-We maintain the low probability of a China-US conflict.
-We expect that the islamic surge will going on until 2030.
-As a result, we think that a limited globalization and a containment policy (Against Islamism) will shape the international scene in 2030.
2-THE BIG PICTURES
to the updated projections of the United Nations ( Medium
scenario ), the population will attain 8.4 billion in 2030. Go to www.un.org.
Consider the next drawing (In million):
-In 2030: India (1,476), China (1,377), the European Union enlarged to Balkans (505), the USA (360), Indonesia (270), will be the five most populated countries.
figures shows some evolutions in the share of the different regions:
2-The share of Wider Europe will fall .
3- Inside Asia, Indian, and Malays will increase at the detriment of Chinese.
4-The share of Sub saharan Africa will increase to 17% in 2030. Sub saharan Africa will have an higher growth than any other region.
The world GNI is expected to reach 189,409 in 2030. Consider the next drawing: GNI in $Billion, population in million, income per capita in $.
1-The world economic power will be concentrated around the Pacific ocean: North and South East asia, North America and Oceania, will get 60% of the world GNI.
1-North East Asia ( China, Korea and Japan) will grow from 24 to 37% . China should surpass the USA. We also take notice of the emergence of South Asia ( In fact mainly India ) as a new major partner in 2030.
2-North America ( USA and Canada ) and The European Union will have only 31% of the world GNI ( 44% in 2014 !).
3-The area dominated by authoritarian societies ( The Islamic world and Africa) will only get 7% of the world GNI with 24% of the world population
The Global GNI pictures the economic power. The income per capita (GNI/Population) represents the well being of the population.
1-in 2030, 30% of the world population, will be on an income that exceeds $39,000 per capita.
2-The most important fact is the growing Middle class: For example, China and India's middle class will sharply increase (650 million expected in 2030). In turn, this greater middle class will mean a consumption explosion and will boost the world economy.
3-As a result, the percentage of poor people (Lower Middle Income en Low income) will concentrate in South Asia (Except India) and in Africa.
The world in 2030 will be divided into three areas:
1-A Globalizing area (63 % of the population, 86% of the world GNI) with a growing middle class.
2-A backward area dominated by Islamism ( 37% of world population and only 14% of world GNI) with low incomes, economic regression and chaos
The pole between North Asia and North America will definitely have the major influence. This situation gives us quite a different picture from the familiar one. In 2014, the world was based on three main centers of wealth: North America, Western Europe and Japan. In 2030 the world's center of gravity will move towards Asia and North America.
4-THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES
-We have no control over the major danger represented by the deforestation in the third world. In just a few hours, deforestation can cause land to disappear through storms, as well as leading to desertification, with all its consequences on food, and on climate.
Arable land is an organic composite that is probably unique in the universe. It took millions of years to make this humus. In a few hours, through excessive deforestation, we would destroy something that is as precious as the air we breath.
The problem of water will be a serious threat in the entire North Africa Middle East region, as well as in part of Central Asia. Solutions exist, but the authoritarian nature of the governments in these regions is likely to hinder the process of putting them into practice. Further permanent causes of local conflicts will result.
In 2030, the world will be freer but will still include localized zones of authoritarianism, economic regression and chaos. We forecast an arch of instability along a line going from South East Asia to Western Europe and confronting free societies and the authoritarian Islam. In Asia, Islamism will be blocked through local wars and repression of separatism. On the other hand, Islamism will progress in Western Europe and Africa where it will not encounter too much resistance.
By opposition, North America and North East Asia (China) belong to the same paradigm and the experts consensus does not expect any major conflict between these two regions before 2030.
Clearly, we have known more discoveries from 1945 until today than since the beginning of mankind until 1945. This high flow of discoveries will boost the future growth.
421-Some expected advances
All the future technical progress from here to 2030 is yet in the laboratories because it needs decades to go from the basic research to the marketing of the new products. We may only list some likely developments:
-Computers: The computing power is following a curve of exponential growth. Artificial intelligence is yet embedded everywhere in today's society ( Medical devices such as electrocardiogram machines and credit card fraud detection software). Before 2030, computers will be embedded in the environment and into materials such as clothing and eyeglasses. Images will be written directly on human retinas ( Today, the military are using this technology in modeling virtual reality environments)
-Nano technologies and Biotechnology: Devices from internet to direct computer-to-brain connections will enhance the human ability. Nanotechnologies can replace used organs in compliance with the general trend extending the duration of life.
-Genetics: Work will mainly concentrate on prevention of diseases and on prostheses. We will manage to invent prostheses that make it possible to cure certain types of blindness. Advances should also be made for the paralyzed. The possibility of improving intellectual capabilities of individuals by means of genetics no doubt relies in a more distant future. On the other hand, genetic researches could be slowed down by ethical restrictions.
-New energy sources : One of the future challenges is achieving nuclear fusion that can provide mankind with an unlimited supply of energy. Moreover, the industrial development of satisfactory electric vehicles will take place in the years to come.
-Space exploration: A landing on March can be expected by 2030. However, many people are questioning about the scientific outcomes of space exploration that consumes big money.
-Weaponry : Non lethal weapons based on the use of microwaves that temporarily disrupt the conscious faculties of the enemy would be developed. These non-lethal weapons could represent an amazing progress in the history of humanity, by avoiding the killing inherent to conflicts.
422-Consequences on world power
The knowledge will be concentrated in the Free societies. For more than half a century, the US has led the world in scientific discovery and innovations and they will maintain their predominance by 2030. However, Asian nations are rapidly increasing their ability to train their own scientists and engineers.
The role played by Europe will probably be less important for three reasons: The excessive weight of the State in education and research; the limitations of outdated regulations and the religious misgivings about work in genetics. the European Union will be slipping behind Asia.
Of course, the countries affected by the islamic obscurantism will be completely out of any scientific competition.
In 2030, a great deal of basic evolution will have taken place in the most advanced countries: North America and the Scandinavian countries, Japan, Australia,
The latest repressive structures will have disappeared. Education will be rid of all the negative beliefs.
Paid work will progressively disappear: Individuals will work as consultants, suppliers of services or as shareholders.
Leisure will dominate.
We invite you to compare our results with the CIA Global trends 2020 . The CIA Survey results in five scenario: Davos world, Pax Americana, A new Caliphate, and the cycle of fear. In our opinion, it does not take enough in account the Islamic driver.
Make careful note of these forecasts to finalize your business idea.
In terms of market bear in mind Asia and North America. Economic activity will be centralized in this huge area.
Take notice of the global advance in knowledge's.
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