Global trends

Global trends is based on futurology. Futurology combines researches about the demographic, economic, politic and scientific development of humanity.

By the end, you will be able to insert your business idea in a prospective trend.

We have chosen 2030 as our temporal horizon. We can describe the world as it will be in 2030 with a little margin of uncertainty, as far as the principal aggregates are concerned (population, economy, GNI etc.)

Futurology is based on current facts. It analyses these facts. It extends them into the future. The further away the horizon, the less precise and valuable the forecast. We are relatively sure about what will happen tomorrow. It is absurd and of no use at all to imagine what might happen in 2500 years?

Through our experience of the past 30 years, we can anticipate the coming 30 years. In fact, most of the people who are reading these lines will still be alive in 2030. For older people, this horizon is more likely to concern their children or, if not, their grandchildren.

-We maintain the low probability of a China-US conflict. In 2030, China's GNI will still be lower than that of the USA and China cannot make up for this difference by forming alliances since its two main neighbors (Japan and India) are opposed to its regime.

-As a result, we think that a limited globalization and a containment policy (Against Islamism) will shape the international scene in 2030.

According to the updated projections of the United Nations ( Revision 2004- Medium scenario ), the population will attain 8.2 billion in 2030. It will grow to 9 billion in 2050. Then it should stabilize and begin to decline after 2100. Go to www.un.org. and www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm. Consider the next drawing (In million):

DRAWING 1

Years----------------- 2005-----2030-----2050----- 2100

Medium scenario------6,464----8,199----9,075---- 9,000

High scenario-----------6,464----8,784----10,696--- 18,000

Low scenario ---------- 6,464----7,618-----7,679-----5,000

The regional repartition is given by the next drawing ( Population in Million and share of world population in % ). The country composition of regions is based on the FWA analytical regions and may differ from common geographic usage. Go to annex 1 : Classification.

DRAWING 2

Years------------------------- 2004---------------2030

Wider Europe-------------------799 (12%)---------763 (9%)
North America------------------330 ( 5%)----------400 (5%)
Latin America-------------------561 ( 8%)----------722 (9%)
Oceania-------------------------33-----------------42

Sub total-------------------- 1723 (25%)------1927 (23%)

South East Asia----------------555 ( 8%)----------700 ( 9%)
North East Asia---------------1,524 (23%)-------1,542 (19%)
South Asia------------------- 1,478 (23%)-------2,044 (25%)
Central Asia----------------------63 ( 1%)-----------75 (1%)

Sub total--------------------3,620 (57%)-----4,361 (54%)

Middle East and North Africa----386 (6%)---------- 585 ( 7%)
Sub saharan Africa ------------751 (12%)--------1,328 (16%)

Sub total--------------------1,137 (18%)-----1,912 (23%)

Gross total------------------6,480 (100%)---8,200 (100%)

The ten most populated countries are/or will be ( In million ):

-In 2004: China (1,315), India (1,103), the European Union (470), the USA (298), Indonesia (222), Brazil (186), Pakistan (157), Russia (143), Bangladesh (141), Nigeria (131). These ten countries represent 64 % of the world's population

-In 2030: India (1,449), China (1,346), the European Union enlarged to Balkans and Turkey (605), the USA (360), Indonesia (270), Pakistan (262), Brazil (235), Nigeria (217), Bangladesh (205), Ethiopia (136). These ten countries will represent 63 % of the world's population

These figures shows some evolutions in the share of the different regions:

1-Globally, the net increase to come (8200-6480=1720) will exclusively occur in under developed countries. It will be mainly composed with Asian : 42% (Mostly Indian and Malays) and black african 33%.

2-The share of Wider Europe will fall from 12% in 2004 to 9% in 2030.

3-The share of Asia (57% in 2004) will diminish in 2030 (54%). Inside Asia, Indian, and Malays will increase at the detriment of Chinese.

4-The share of Sub saharan Africa (12% in 2004) will increase to 16% in 2030. Sub saharan Africa will have an higher growth than any other region.

The world GNI attains 39,305 $Billion in 2004. It is expected to reach 94,290 in 2030. Consider the next drawing: GNI in $Billion, population in million, income per capita in $.

Years---------------------------2004---------- 2030

WORLD GNI ---------------------39,305---------94,290
Population----------------------- 6,480-----------8200
World income per capita--------- 6,065---------11,500

This economic trend implies an average growth rate of 3.4% over 26 years. Compared to the population growth rate 1%, it means that the world income per capita will increase by 2.4% per year over the period.

The next drawing shows the evolution of the main economic zone in % of the world GNI. According to our classification, the detailed figures, region by region, are in Annex 2.

1-The world economic power will be concentrated around the Pacific ocean: North America, Oceania , North and South East asia will get 67% of the world GNI.

2-North America ( USA and Canada ) will keep quite the same share of the world GNI as in 2004.

3-North East Asia ( China, Korea and Japan) will grow from 19% to 30% ( The same share as North America in 2030 ). We also take notice of the emergence of South Asia ( In fact mainly India ) as a new major partner in 2030. This global growth of Asia is made at the detriment of the European Union.

4-The area dominated by authoritarian societies ( The Islamic world and Africa) will only get 3.5% of the world GNI with 34% of the world population

5-The European Union share will fall from 31% to 19% in spite of the enlargement to the Balkans and Turkey.

-In 2004: USA: 12,150; Japan:4,750; Germany: 2,490; China: 2,130; United Kingdom: 2,020; France: 1,860; Italy: 1,500; Canada: 900; Spain: 880; Mexico: 700; India: 680; Korea: 670; Brazil: 550; Australia: 541; Netherlands: 515. These countries represent 82% of the GNI and 55% of the world population.

-In 2030: USA: 26,000; China: 18,000; Japan: 6,990; India: 4,760; United Kingdom: 3,320; Germany: 3,100; Korea 3,100; France 2,500; Russia: 2,215; Canada: 1,950; Italy: 1875; Spain 1550; Mexico 1,520; Australia: 1,500; Brazil: 1,190. The countries represent 84%of the World GNI and 52% of the population.

At first glance, the major economic powers will not change too much: The USA will remain the first economic power. Only one country, Russia, will enter the club. On the other hand, the ranking differs with China, India and Korea outpacing most of the European countries.

The Global GNI pictures the economic power. The income per capita (GNI/Population) represents the well being of the population.

According to the World Bank, the world economy is divided into the following income groups: Low Income= $825 or less; Lower Middle Income= $826 to $3,255; Upper Middle Income=$3,256 to $10,065; and High Income= $10,066 or more.

The next drawing shows the repartition of the world population (In %) into these income groups in 2004 and 2030.

1-in 2030, 34% of the world population, will be on an income that exceeds $10,000 per capita (16% in 2004)

2-The most important fact is the growing Middle class: High and Upper Middle income groups will represent 61% of the world population in 2030 ( 25% in 2004). For example, China and India's middle class will sharply increase (650 million expected in China by 2030). In turn, this greater middle class will mean a consumption explosion and will boost the world economy.

3-As a result, the percentage of poor people (Lower Middle Income en Low income) will decrease from 75% to 39% and will concentrate in South Asia (Except India) and in Africa. Large segments of the world population will endure a greater poverty than in 2004. For example, the situation in Sub Saharan Africa will be catastrophic: The GNI per capita ( $355 in 2004-Except South Africa ) will drop to $290 in 2030.

1-A Globalizing area (51.5 % of the population, 74.5% of the world GNI) with a growing middle class.

2-A backward area dominated by Islamism ( 34.5% of world population and only 3.5% of world GNI) with low incomes, economic regression and chaos

3-A declining area (European Union and South America: 14% of the world population and 22% of the world GNI).

The pole between Asia and North America will definitely have the major influence. This situation gives us quite a different picture from the familiar one. In 2004, the world was based on three main centers of wealth: North America, Western Europe and Japan. In 2030 the world's center of gravity will move towards Asia and North America.

-We have no control over the major danger represented by the deforestation in the third world. In just a few hours, deforestation can cause land to disappear through storms, as well as leading to desertification, with all its consequences on food, and on climate.

Arable land is an organic composite that is probably unique in the universe. It took millions of years to make this humus. In a few hours, through excessive deforestation, we would destroy something that is as precious as the air we breath.

On a world scale, between 1990 and 1995 that is to say in 5 years, we destroyed 500 000 km² of forests, i.e. the equivalent of the surface area of France.

At this rate, the Amazonian rainforests in South East Asia and Central Africa will be seriously damaged by 2030, with irreversible consequences for the climate. 3 000 000 km² of forests risk deforestation between 2000 and 2030, i.e. the equivalent of 6 times the surface area of France!

The problem of water will be a serious threat in the entire North Africa — Middle East region, as well as in part of Central Asia. Solutions exist, but the authoritarian nature of the governments in these regions is likely to hinder the process of putting them into practice. Further permanent causes of local conflicts will result.

In 2030, the world will be freer but will still include localized zones of authoritarianism, economic regression and chaos. We forecast an arch of instability along a line going from South East Asia to Western Europe and confronting free societies and the authoritarian Islam. In Asia, Islamism will be blocked through local wars and repression of separatism. On the other hand, Islamism will progress in Western Europe and Africa where it will not encounter too much resistance.

By opposition, North America and North East Asia (China) belong to the same paradigm: globalization and the experts consensus does not expect any major conflict between these two regions before 2030.

Clearly, we have known more discoveries from 1945 until today than since the beginning of mankind until 1945. This high flow of discoveries will boost the future growth.

All the future technical progress from here to 2030 is yet in the laboratories because it needs decades to go from the basic research to the marketing of the new products. We may only list some likely developments:

-Computers: The computing power is following a curve of exponential growth. Artificial intelligence is yet embedded everywhere in today's society ( Medical devices such as electrocardiogram machines and credit card fraud detection software). Before 2030, computers will be embedded in the environment and into materials such as clothing and eyeglasses. Images will be written directly on human retinas ( Today, the military are using this technology in modeling virtual reality environments)

-Nano technologies and Biotechnology: Devices from internet to direct computer-to-brain connections will enhance the human ability. Nanotechnologies can replace used organs in compliance with the general trend extending the duration of life.

-Genetics: Work will mainly concentrate on prevention of diseases and on prostheses. We will manage to invent prostheses that make it possible to cure certain types of blindness. Advances should also be made for the paralyzed. The possibility of improving intellectual capabilities of individuals by means of genetics no doubt relies in a more distant future. On the other hand, genetic researches could be slowed down by ethical restrictions.

-Space exploration: A landing on March can be expected by 2030. However, many people are questioning about the scientific outcomes of space exploration that consumes big money.

-Weaponry : Non lethal weapons based on the use of microwaves that temporarily disrupt the conscious faculties of the enemy would be developed. These non-lethal weapons could represent an amazing progress in the history of humanity, by avoiding the killing inherent to conflicts.

422-Consequences on world power

The knowledge will be concentrated in the Free societies. For more than half a century, the US has led the world in scientific discovery and innovations and they will maintain their predominance by 2030. However, Asian nations are rapidly increasing their ability to train their own scientists and engineers.

The role played by Europe will probably be less important for three reasons: The excessive weight of the State in education and research; the limitations of outdated regulations and the religious misgivings about work in genetics. the European Union will be slipping behind Asia.

Of course, the countries affected by the islamic obscurantism will be completely out of any scientific competition.

In 2030, a great deal of basic evolution will have taken place in the most advanced countries: North America and the Scandinavian countries, Japan, Australia,

The latest repressive structures will have disappeared. Education will be rid of all the negative beliefs.

Paid work will progressively disappear: Individuals will work as consultants, suppliers of services or as shareholders.

We invite you to compare our results with the CIA Global trends 2020 . The CIA Survey results in five scenario: Davos world, Pax Americana, A new Caliphate, and the cycle of fear. In our opinion, it does not take enough in account the Islamic driver.

In terms of market bear in mind Asia and North America. Economic activity will be centralized in this huge area.

The country composition of regions is based on the FWA analytical regions and may differ from common geographic usage. According to FWA classification, the following areas include:

1-Wider Europe: The European Union (25) + Iceland, Switzerland, Norway, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia, Albania, Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, Turkey.

2-European Union: In 2004, the 25 countries + Iceland, Switzerland, and Norway. In 2030, the precedent + Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia, Albania, and Turkey.

4-North America: The United States of America, Canada, Bermuda, Greenland,
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon.

5-Central America and the Caribbeans: Mexico, Belize, guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, Antigua and barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, Dominican republic, Cuba, Grenada, Jamaica, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Haiti, Anguilla, British virgin islands, Cayman islands, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos islands, Puerto Rico, US virgin islands, Aruba, Netherlands antilles (Curacao), Martinique, Guadeloupe, St Barth and St Martin.

6-South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela, French Guyana.

7-Oceania: Australia, New Zealand, Melanesia (Including Papua New Guineas), Micronesia, Polynesia.

8-South East Asia: Myanmar (Burma), Lao, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

9-North East Asia: China (Including Hong Kong and Taiwan), Japan, the two Koreas and Mongolia.

10-South Asia: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri lanka and Maldives.

11-Central Asia: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyz.

12-Middle East and North Africa: Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Israel, West Bank, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Iran.

13-Sub saharan Africa: All the African countries minor North Africa, Sudan and Mauritania.

The next drawing shows the evolution of the GNI (In $Billion), population (In Million) and incomes per capita (In $) region by region.

Years-------------------------2005------------------2030
---------------------GNI-----Pop-----Inc-----GNI-----Pop-----Inc

North America---13,050---330---39,500---28,100---400---70,300
Oceania------------ 640----33---19,390-----1,750----42---41,700
Central America---- 880---186----4,730-----2,170---238----9,151
Far Eastern Europe- 580---203----2,857-----3,360---158---21,265

North East Asia--7,565---1,524---4,963---28,400---1,542--18,417
Whom China-----2,130---1,315---1,619---18,000---1,346--13,370
South Asia-Islamic 180-----375-----480------350-----595-----590
India---------------680---1,103-----616----4,760---1,449---3,285
S East AsiaIslamic- 365-----246--- 1,480-----940----- 310---3,030
S East Asia---------420-----309----1,360----1,525---- 390---3,900
-no Islamic

Middle East and NA-790----379-----2,084----1,482----575---2,577
Israel --------------120------7----17,140-----228------10---22,800
Sub Saharan Africa -250----704------355----- 370---1,278-----290
South Africa-------- 165-----47-----3,510---- 330------44----7,500
Central Asia----------60-----63-------950-----220------75--- 2,930

European Union--12,000---470----25,530---18,235---605---30,140
Balkans and Turkey- 425--- 126-----3,370
South America---- 1,090--- 375-----2,900----2,070---484----4,280

Gross total--------39,305--6,480---6,065---94,290--8,195---11,500